Ohio redistricting proposal has political slant

A Republican-dominated state panel this week approved new state legislative district boundaries that would lead to unfairly large Republican majorities in the Ohio House and Senate, political scientists said. The Ohio Redistricting Commission on Wednesday approved a plan that would appear to lead to a Republican legislative majority "well over 60%, maybe 65%," said Herb Asher, political science professor emeritus at Ohio State University. That is despite the fact that Republican candidates have gotten about 55% of the vote in statewide and legislative races over the past 10 years. Republicans currently hold nearly 70% of the seats in the Legislature after a much-criticized redistricting done in 2011, said Paul Beck, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University. The legislative districts approved by the Ohio Redistricting Commission will be challenged and possibly rejected in court, Asher said. The Ohio Supreme Court, which would rule on the redistricting plan, has a 4-3 Republican majority. But one of the Republicans on the court — Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor — could be a swing vote. She has been an outspoken critic of unfair manipulation of legislative districts. In fact, O'Connor cast a dissenting vote against Republicans in a 2012 lawsuit against the current state legislative lines. If the redistricting plan is upheld, it would be in effect for only four years instead of 10 years. That's because the two Democrats on the seven-member redistricting panel voted against the plan. Concern that Ohio's process for redrawing legislative districts got too partisan led Ohioans in 2015 to approve a constitutional amendment for a less partisan redistricting process. One provision of that amendment stipulated that if the minority party members of the commission unanimously rejected a plan, districts would have to be redrawn four years later instead of 10. "Voters, I'm sure, were thinking, 'We want less partisanship in this. We want more competitive districts. We don't want this imbalance where the majority party — in this case, the Republicans — are able to win in the primaries and don't even have to worry about general election competition because the district is so overwhelmingly in their favor,'" Beck said. Having a situation where both Republican and Democratic candidates are competitive within the same district would lessen polarization, Asher said. "When you create all of these safe districts, the key election isn't the general election. It's the primary. And how do you win a Republican primary? Typically you move to the right," he said. "How do you win a Democratic primary? You move to the left. But that means that in the general election, you're going to wind up electing a Republican more conservative than the average Republican and probably a Democrat more liberal (than the average Democrat)." Having a supermajority of more extreme lawmakers from one party brings a predictable result. "These supermajorities are able to really promote and pass really extreme legislation," Beck said. Republicans, who already have a supermajority in the Legislature, have passed measures that are likely out of step with most Ohioans, he said. Beck's examples: • Some anti-abortion bills. "Many of these anti-abortion bills are things that probably are not supported by a majority of the population in the state. But a majority of the Legislature, a supermajority, is able to pass them." • Limits on mask mandates and other pandemic measures. "If our Legislature was representative of how the votes actually broke down, they wouldn't have tied the hands of Gov. (Mike) DeWine in terms of mask mandates and shutdowns. He's complained about that himself, that they really have not given him any leeway there. So again, I think that what we're seeing here is a Legislature here in Ohio, and some other states as well, that really doesn't reflect the sentiment of voters. And it's just because of how votes are translated into seats in the Legislature." But getting the politics out of redistricting is hard. Asher said that when the constitutional amendment to improve Ohio's redistricting was written, it was no coincidence that Republicans wanted it stipulated that challenges to a redistricting plan would go to the Ohio Supreme Court instead of a federal court. "At the time, the Ohio Supreme Court was 7-0 Republican," he said. Democrats historically have been just as partisan. "I can assure you that in the past when the Democrats controlled the process, they would try to (thwart) the Republicans," Asher said. Wilin: 419-427-8413