Flood predictions fall short in Findlay

The Blanchard River at Findlay crested at about 10.4 feet Friday morning, well short of flood stage and a roller coaster ride of predictions from the National Weather Service office in Cleveland. A flood warning for the river was canceled early Friday afternoon after the river crested nearly 2 feet short of flood stage, which is 12 feet. The weather service had adjusted its prediction for a major flood to a moderate flood overnight from Thursday to Friday, with a forecasted crest of 13.35 feet. Previous forecasts issued Thursday had projected the river to crest at 15.5 feet, 1 foot above major flood stage. David Marsaleck, a meteorologist with the weather service office in Cleveland, said so many factors influence flood levels that predictions are often very difficult. A mix of warm and cold weather, rain, snow and ice, snowmelt, frozen ground, ground saturation levels, and the possibility of ice jams made this weather event a tough call, he said. With this storm, heavy rainfall that had been predicted with Thursday's storm missed the watershed and spared the city from flooding. "People usually don't get too upset when it doesn't flood," Marsaleck said. That's very true for Findlay Mayor Christina Muryn. "I have never been so relieved for such a wrong prediction," Muryn said. "Weather is extremely difficult to predict and though it was frustrating, I appreciate the National Weather Services Agency being cautious and continually communicating with us as their models changed." Since the river didn't reach flood level, Marsaleck said it's unknown how much the flood mitigation already in place in Hancock County — river benches and a more clear floodway — helped with this week's storm. In March 2021, the weather service raised flood stages for the Blanchard River at Findlay, due to mitigation efforts. Minor flood stage was raised from 11 feet to 12 feet. Moderate flood stage was raised from 12 feet to 13.5 feet, and major flood stage was raised from 13.5 feet to 14.5 feet. "Hopefully with our continued mitigation efforts, these scares become few and far between," said Muryn. Future plans call for additional benching of the river's banks, clearing more structures from the floodway and construction of a large flood basin in Eagle Township. This week's storm did impact area roadways, not with floodwater, but with snow and ice. Level 1 road advisories, issued in Hancock and surrounding counties on Thursday evening, were lifted Friday afternoon as conditions quickly improved. Greg Meyers, a Findlay resident and a volunteer weather observer for the weather service, reported 1.5 inches of snow from Thursday night's storm, and one-half inch of ice. According to Meyers, the total snowfall for the season is 24.3 inches. The season total at the same time in 2021 was 42.9 inches. A slight chance of snow is back in the forecast for today, with a high near 19 degrees. The wind chill factor will be as low as 2 below zero, according to the weather service. The low tonight will be about 11 degrees. Sunday is expected to be sunny and warmer, with a high near 46 degrees and a low of about 36 degrees. Grant: 419-427-8412