Purdue won't shock OSU this time

It's been 21 years since the last time I predicted Purdue to beat Ohio State. There is no surprise waiting at the end of this column. Ohio State is the solid favorite this year. A very solid favorite. My prediction does not contain any shocking forecast. But before getting to that, it's time to review some of my misses at predicting past Ohio State-Purdue games, which might be appropriate since OSU has had a few misses of its own at Purdue's Ross-Ade Stadium, the site of Saturday's game. The Buckeyes have a 4-5 record at Purdue since 2000. In 2018, a Purdue team which finished with a below .500 record, blew out then No. 2 OSU 49-20. I had predicted a 42-28 Ohio State win. The first paragraph of my game story in The Lima News was "Red zone? More like red faced zone." In the tumultuous 2011 season, I predicted a 24-14 Ohio State win. Purdue won 26-23. My verdict on the Buckeyes' performance was "It was a battle of flawed football teams and in the end Purdue had one fewer flaw." In 2009, I predicted a 28-10 Ohio State win over the Boilermakers, who had lost 19 games in a row against ranked teams. Purdue won 26-18. My game story listed some of the ways it was a very bad day for the Buckeyes: "The No. 7 Buckeyes couldn't run, couldn't hang onto the ball, couldn't rush the passer, couldn't take advantage of Purdue's mistakes and couldn't play pass defense." In 2004, I picked Purdue 14-13 and the Boilermakers won 24-17. Purdue won 31-27 in 2000 but I have no idea what I predicted and the column is not in The Lima News electronic library. I do remember that Purdue quarterback Drew Brees completed 39 of 65 passes for 455 yards and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Seth Morales with less than two minutes to play. On paper, this year's matchup between No. 1 Ohio State (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) and Purdue (2-7, 0-6 Big Ten) is a mismatch, maybe even more of a mismatch than the 2018 shocker. Purdue has lost 15 Big Ten games in a row dating back to a win over Indiana in its last game of the 2023 season. Ohio State has lost 15 Big Ten games in the last 16 seasons combined. The Boilermakers' new head coach Barry Odom brought in more than 50 new players this season but has not had the immediate success Curt Cignetti did at Indiana last year using a similar approach. Purdue has been competitive in three of its last four games – a 27-20 loss to Minnesota, a 27-24 loss to Rutgers and a 21-16 loss to Michigan. But there are also some numbers which are not so encouraging. Purdue averages 22.1 points a game and UCLA and Wisconsin are the only Big Ten teams averaging less than that. Defensively, Purdue gives up 27.8 points a game, which puts the Boilermakers in 15th place in the Big Ten. Also, Purdue gives up 394.6 yards a game, more than any Big Ten team except Rutgers. The prediction: Ohio State 38, Purdue 7.